For the presidential race, the November 3 elections in battleground states are most crucial. Now, Democrats have turned their strategy, and they tailored it for the coronavirus pandemic. Now they are urging supporters to request mail ballots. Democrats are also assured of returning them right away. In North Carolina, before mail voting started on Friday, there were some parties operates, and they were warning about heavy reliance on mail ballots. They also told it could carry risks, and hence healthy voters should always choose to vote in person.
Polling clearly showed that Biden, the Democratic nominee has advantages in decisive mail-voting. The supporters of the former vice president always liked and chose mail voting than those of Trump. Apart from that, Democrats are also worried that there could be some misleading signals emerging right on election night in case if Trump builds lead initially through in-person votes. So, even though he lags behind Biden when it comes to mail ballots, they take much longer to count than in-person voting.
They also fear Trump since he claims mail voting is fraud and rife. They fear that he might try to cast doubt on the validity of remaining and uncounted mail ballots. He may stage a stage for lengthy legal battles and chaos in the aftermath of the election. A Democratic-aligned data and technology firm, Hawkfish, founded by Michael Bloomberg, former New York Mayor, released a report on Tuesday. The report warned about a ‘red mirage,’ and it was regarding the election night wherein Trump will indeed appear ahead even though he is not.
They also reported that “Will this red mirage dissipate, and Biden’s lead materialize.” The group’s vice president of voter researchEllen Konar said, “We can anticipate that the president and at least Fox News likely, but many others, are going to declare victory at that point.” “They’re not going to say, ‘Oh, let’s hold off. We don’t have all the ballots in.’ ”
Trump attacked vote by mail several times, and as part of it, he suggested that voters in North Carolina will test their voting system if they choose to vote by mail and then try to vote in person. But, meantime, the State Board of Elections of Carolina issues a statement; they made it clear that it’s illegal to vote twice. Both are attempting to vote twice, and the meantime, solicit others to vote twice is unlawful.
According to Morning Consult, in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, Biden leads Trump, it was 50% to 43%. The poll was carried in nine out of the existing 11 battleground states. The 7-percentage-point advantage of Biden in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll has become narrower compared to the 12-point lead that he held in the survey in June. So, based on polls in the battleground states, it will be a tight race. If the same remains for Nov. 3, then it will take many days for results to emerge.
Other states are not accustomed to high mail-in voting volumes, like Michigan, Rust Belt swing states, Wisconsin, and even Pennsylvania. In these states, election officials will not start counting ballots until voting is completed on election night. There are few more swing states like Minnesota, which allow absence ballots to postmark till Election Day.
So, only partial results will be available for these states on election nights. But, early on Election Day, they include mostly votes cast in person, to release partial results even though officials have not counted votes. In the latter category, Trump has a greater advantage, and that is clear from elections polls. Some states may take days or weeks to complete the count of mail-in votes, which should likely to favor Democrats heavily.
Hawkfish’s reports, Prepare the public for these types of scenarios and call media and pundits. People should be “engaged wisely and cautiously.” Encouraged Democrats and others who are backing Biden to re-plan and rethink how they should do it.
“If you have developed antibodies to the virus or you feel comfortable being at a voting place,” “your vote will be in the initial count.”
Even though Hawkfish, not formally affiliated and connected with the Biden campaign, it works for the pro-Biden Super PACs Unite Our Country and American Bridge. Hawkfishalso works with the Democratic National Committee. There are similar concerns by other prominent Democrats. A former adviser to President Barack Obama, David Axelrod tweeted last month,
“This is what sets up a potential disaster,” “with Trump claiming fraud as the count turns against him.” The 2016 Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton said, “Trump hopes to get a narrow advantage in the Electoral College on Election Day,” She also emphasized “Election Day.” Meantime she also stressed that “absentee ballots will be still left to count.”
She added, “Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances,” “because I think this is going to drag out,” in an interview to “The Circus” last week. In ’18, votes those counted late skewed toward Democrats. In the past, before the 2020 cycle, provisional ballots and absentee ballots counted late always skewed toward Democrats. It is often found that they turned deficits for candidates from the Democratic Party into leads. It is so much so that they gave a name “blue shift” for the same phenomenon.
In 2018 midterms, it was the days when Democrats expanded their majority after Election Day. Republican Senate candidate in Arizona, Martha McSally was ahead initially on Election night. But later conceded after the other candidate, KyrstenSinema picked up 70000 votes also through the mail. In most of the cases, late counted votes have tilted more heavily for Democrats, and the same may happen in November. Democrats are always inclined towards a ballot by mail, and it could be health reasons compared to Republicans amid the President’s barrage of attacks towards the integrity of mail-voting.
President Trump claimed that voting by mail might lead to voter fraud even after evidence from earlier elections has shown it is not valid. A data scientist at Hawkfish, Joe Wlos said, “The election is poised for an ‘intensification of the blue shift.’”